House prices across Britain expected to grow by 14% by 2022
3 November 2017
House prices in the North West of England are forecast to surge at over double the rate of that in London over the next five years, according to a report.
Between 2018 and 2022, house prices across Britain are projected by real estate adviser Savills to grow by 14.2%.
Savills expects different pockets of Britain will see marked differences in house price growth over the period.
Its projections range from an average 18% increase in the North West - a home to the "northern powerhouse" - to about 7% in London.
The report said the North West region in particular has "a robust economic outlook and strong employment growth".
It said house prices in the North West are relatively modest compared with incomes, at around 5.6 times wages on average.
Charlie Kannreuther, head of residential at Savills Chester, said: "The economic powerhouse in the region is clearly Manchester, with the wealth created through jobs in the city tending to migrate south to the outer suburbs and Cheshire villages such as Hale, Wilmslow, Alderley Edge and Knutsford."
He continued: "Further north, the Ribble Valley has various up-and-coming hotspots, like the town of Clitheroe and nearby village of Whalley."
In London, house prices stand at about 12.9 times typical earnings.
"London's housing market has been pushing up against the limits of mortgage regulation and affordability for some time," said Lawrence Bowles, a research analyst at Savills.
"The Brexit vote was the tipping point that slowed price growth. Weakened sentiment combined with expected interest rate rises now point to small, short-term price falls next year."
He said greater economic and political certainty should trigger a return to house price growth for London in 2020 but cautioned: "This will be capped by borrowing constraints as gradual increases in the cost of mortgage debt impinge on affordability."
The prime London market is expected to outperform the capital generally, with stronger growth, having seen some falls following stamp duty changes in recent years for top-end homes.
Savills said property values in London have surged by 70% over the past decade.
It said: “The market has, therefore, become increasingly accessible only to more affluent, dual-income households, which will restrict potential future growth in the capital and, in turn, act as a drag on its commuter belt.”
House prices in London are expected to fall by 2% next year, before levelling off in 2019, with net growth of 7.1% forecast across the next five years.
Looking across the country generally, Savills said cash buyers, who account for about a third (34%) of all house purchases, have become more dominant and this trend is expected to continue “as others struggle to access the market”.
It expects to see a sharp fall in mortgaged buy-to-let investors over the coming five years, following various tax changes which it said had a combined impact of restricting activity in this sector.
Savills said there had already been signs that some mortgaged buy-to-let investors may be selling stock.
Here is how Savills’ forecasts could affect house price growth across Britain over the next five years, with the average house price in 2017 followed by the predicted gain in cash and percentage terms by the end of 2022 and the predicted average house price in 2022. It used house price figures from Nationwide Building Society to show how its projections could affect average property values:
North West, £156,000, £28,000, 18.1%, £184,000
North East, £127,000, £22,000, 17.6%, £149,000
Yorkshire and the Humber, £151,000, £27,000, 17.6%, £178,000
Scotland, £146,000, £25,000, 17%, £171,000
Wales, £150,000, £24,000, 15.9%, £174,000
East Midlands, £178,000, £26,000, 14.8%, £204,000
West Midlands, £183,000, £27,000, 14.8%, £210,000
South West, £241,000, £34,000, 14.2%, £275,000
East of England, £288,000, £33,000, 11.5%, £321,000
South East, £322,000, £37,000, 11.5%, £358,000
London, £472,000, £33,000, 7.1%, £505,000