Why great leaders master the art of anticipation

Riding my motorbike through a curve, I sometimes find myself with the heart-stopping realisation that there’s something ahead I didn’t see; perhaps a tighter curve than I expected, or a pothole. In business, unexpected events throw leaders into the same situation. 

 

While some leaders stumble and struggle to manage those potholes, others seem to breeze right through them without breaking a sweat. There’s no superpower involved, just the art of anticipation.

 

When I’m more focused on my riding, I keep a keen eye on what lies ahead so that I can adjust my stance now, before I get there. If there’s any potential danger ahead, I’ll slow down and be on high alert, whereas on a clear road I can open up the throttle more safely. 

 

Anticipation may be described simply as: when you are aware of what lies over the horizon, you can prepare for it. That much is true, but even adept future-scanners suffer uncertainty that pops out of nowhere. Great leaders build themselves and their teams for such moments, and are able to steer decisively and confidently through such potholes.

 

 

Future scanning

The easier or more intuitive part of anticipation is maintaining sight of the emerging future. Alert leaders do not simply read about metatrends but apply them critically to their context. If the population is ageing and I sell to youngsters, where will that leave me? Great leaders have the pulse of their client base: if consumer habits are changing, what should I be offering - next month and in three years’ time?

 

I suggest that leaders split their focus and weekly agenda into three parts: 

1. Immediate Terrain: You invariably need to spend around 70% of your time on daily operations, keeping the wheels turning today.
2. Approaching Curves: Emerging opportunities that require a shift in approach, or upgrading current systems, should take around 20% of your time.
3. Distant Peaks: Carve out 10% of your time for the long-term, future bets that may completely redefine your journey. If you don’t preserve time for it, the present will steal your future.

 

Scenario planning

When you can’t see over the horizon, you have to adapt. Do not trust luck for things to work out; build your ability to tackle uncertainty by preparing for it. People often imagine scenario planning to be an expensive, off-site endeavour, but the reality is it can be as simple as practising scenarios, inviting opinions, and building failsafes.

 

Solo Scenarios: while you wait for your coffee to brew, ask yourself random questions. What would I do if that key member resigned now? What if a change in law prohibits my current business model? What if all flights are grounded for weeks?

 

Group Scenarios: Gather your managers and ask them how they would handle different emergency scenarios. No one imagined COVID closing down the global supply chain, nor the ongoing Hormuz Strait closure - yet we need to deal with these. Find your weakest links, the areas your business model is most dependent on, and ask yourselves what you would do if that disappeared overnight.

 

Opinions: Ask more junior team members for their views - sometimes being sheltered from reality allows creative solutions that the execs may dismiss more quickly. Consider these before rejecting them on principle. Invite opinions from trusted people external to the company, or look at other industries, see what’s happening there and how organisations tackle different challenges.

 

Redundancy: Always have a backup in place for failures that would cripple your organisation. Think of a hotel having a power generator in case of a power cut. Have alternate suppliers ready to go if your current one fails you. If online transactions are your lifeline, set up multiple bank accounts and payment processing facilities.

 

 

Share the load

During a storm, the ship’s captain cannot simultaneously steer the vessel, run the engine room, and take any other measures needed. The captain knows that they rely on the team, so they ensure that the team knows what to do during a crisis.

 

Similarly, the most resilient leaders have learned that they simply cannot do it alone. They prepare their people to act decisively and confidently during a crisis by developing their ability to do so during calmer periods.

 

Outstanding leaders do this by clearly explaining the outcome they envision and the guardrails they expect to shape the process (budget, values, timeline). Then, step back and let your people get it done. Any misalignment or errors along the way need to be respectfully discussed until you reach a point where the team consistently makes the right decisions at the right time.

 

Clearly, you do not start this process on a massive project; you select an area with minimal cost and impact if it goes wrong, and then build up from there. If the crew cannot handle the ship in a calm port, they’re going to struggle outside the safe harbour.

 

 

Preparing with resilience

In the absence of the ability to see the future, great leaders prepare themselves and their teams to develop the resilience to flex and bend without breaking, no matter what surprises they find around the next corner.

 

Before you continue your day, take a minute to answer this. What is the biggest risk to your business model that you have no plan B for?

 

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Steve Muscat Azzopardi is a leadership mentor and author of Your Leadership RIDE

 

Main image courtesy of iStockPhoto.com and FangXiaNuo